This page constitutes commentary on a thought-provoking and insightful article by FOFOA.
The article was taken from http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/08/treasure-chest-2-game-changer.html on August 31, 2011.
This page is part of the homeplace advertisement-free web portal.
Commentary Markup is by Frederick N. Chase using only i) emphasis (red, bold, underline, or font size), ii) bracketed pink commentary, and iii) hypertext linking of a term or statement to a web page believed to offer quick uncontroversial augmentation. This page may be inferior because the source i) has been corrected, ii) has been augmented with additional comments, or iii) has additional context.
Thank
you to everyone who donated in support of continuing this blog for a
fourth year! Donations were rolling in last Tuesday pretty much on
par with my other two fundraisers. But then on Wednesday, with the
$100 plunge in the price of paper promises of future gold, the flow
of donations pretty much dropped off a cliff. So I'd also like to
thank the CME for messing up my fundraiser. Thanks a lot, CME!
As
I've mentioned in the past, one of the best parts of fundraising for
me is the comments I receive from supporters. In some cases, people
take the opportunity to ask me questions after I send them a thank
you note. One of the most frequent questions I get has to do with
converting individual retirement accounts (IRAs) into physical gold.
I also get questions about how best to buy and store physical gold
in amounts that are too large for the sock drawer. And people often
ask me what I think would be the "second best option" to
physical in your immediate possession.
These are all
related questions and they are some of the toughest to answer from
my hard-nosed "physical in your hands"
perspective. Other similar questions I have received are what
would be the best way for a managed fund (say a Trust) to invest in
physical gold outside of the banking system? I have one reader who
is an investment banker for banks. He finds investments for actual
banks. He asked:
Do you know anything off hand about the gold rules for banks chartered in the USA? I've had more than a few clients tell me their Boards are proposing gold buys for their banks since they can't get out of their illiquid equity position.
I
have another supporter who is a registered investment advisor (RIA)
who just left a big firm to start his own. His client base includes
a lot of friends and family and he wanted to know what I thought was
a good way to move people into a gold investment that would fit the
FOFOA outlook; and these are people with large 401Ks that have never
even considered gold as an investment. Poor guy, an RIA who happened
to stumble upon FOFOA and then realized he had his friends and
family's money in the wrong stuff. What he really needs
(business-wise) is some kind of true physical
investment platform he can offer that will also pay him a commission
to keep his business going.
I have a doctor with a lot
of physical gold who wants to buy something on credit. He asked me,
if you've put your savings into physical gold, what do you show the
loan officer to prove you have assets? I constantly have people
asking me what I think about CEF, GTU, PHYS, GLD, GoldMoney, Bullion
Vault and others as an alternative to physical gold in your
immediate possession. And I really struggle with all these questions
because I don't like to give out financial advice. I'm not a
financial advisor. In fact, I don't give financial
advice other than telling people to avoid the gold dealers that
advertise on TV because they'll try to sell you high premium
numismatics that you don't want. That's how they can afford TV
commercials.
The point is that the A/FOA/FOFOA view
leads to one conclusion. You want to own actual physical pieces of
gold, preferably stored outside of the banking system. You don't
want to own shares in a pool of gold, or shares in a bar. If you've
got enough for 100 ounces, you don't want to buy a quarter share of
a 400 ounce bar. You either want your own 100 ounce bar or,
preferably, 100 one-ounce bullion coins. It's a pretty simply
conclusion, but it makes answering the questions above kinda
difficult.
On July 2nd, Joe
Yasinski sent me his second donation. I thanked him by email
and he wrote back:
No, thank you.
I am in the process of walking away from being a successful cog in the Wall Street Machine to join a new gold company involving some big names as well as partners at some major wall street powerhouses. If it weren’t for the hours I’ve poured over your writings there is no way I would be on the precipice of this awesome opportunity. I must have spent well over 100 hours reading your stuff over the past few years and it’s been quite a ride. Thank you! I am walking away from selling one manufactured wall street product after another to help build something I truly believe in. Something that will help people through what’s coming. It’s an enormous, exciting undertaking and the reading on your site has played a not insignificant part.
Warmest Regards,
Joe Yasinski
I thought that was pretty neat. Well, Joe sent me another donation for my blog birthday on Tuesday and included this note:
I’m finally starting work at the gold company [actually, their demo shows gold, platinum, palladium, and silver] in two weeks, and I owe a great deal of this decision to your writings. Thank you!
Joe
So I asked him about the new company (emphasis mine):
It's Bullioninternational.com, or GBI.
It is essentially an open architecture platform that allows people in the financial community [what about just plain people?] to buy individually allocated gold in the form of their choice, stored at the facility of their choice (NY, London, Zurich or Salt Lake City), deliverable at the time of their choosing. All independent of the financial system. [Except for your Fidelity or Merrill Lynch user interface?] Trades are executed on a best price basis, and can be processed at up to 30,000 trades a minute. In reality, it’s the world's first physical metal electronic exchange.
We've already had one major national firm [a retail brokerage?] sign up and we’re currently working on bringing on more. Bullion sales through our platform have been growing every month and August was almost a double from July, it’s really exciting.
I believe this is the next step, allowing retail brokerages to buy gold for their clients, real gold, not paper gold. My hope is to take billions of physical off the market in the coming years.
I’m very excited about this opportunity to grow a firm for a cause I have a deep conviction in, thanks in large part to you.
I could chat about this all day, so if you have any questions, by all means, fire away.
Costata
and I looked over the website and we were both very impressed
with
the model. We agreed that this has the potential to be a real game
changer! One of the first things I noticed on the website was the
curious
list of investors/advisors: General
Wesley Clark,
former House Majority Leader Dick
Gephardt,
former SEC Chairman Arthur
Levitt and John
Hathaway,
who I quoted at the top of my 2009 post All
Paper is STILL a short position on gold.
That 1999 quote comes from the Gilded Opinion page at USAGold linked
in my right sidebar.
Not only could this be a game
changer in the physical gold market, but if it's all it seems to be
on the surface, it may well be the closest thing to physical
possession outside of the bullion banking system that also provides
a "transition-friendly" financial solution to all the
questions at the top. The significance of this cannot be overstated.
And so I had a few question[s]
for
Joe.
FOFOA: Thanks,
Joe! I do have some questions for you, because I have several HNW
readers who are constantly asking me about options.
Joe: I’ll
do my best, thank you.
FOFOA: First
of all, how is this different than Bullion Vault or Gold Money? I
think I know, but I’d like to know your answer.
Joe: We
are different from bullion vault and gold money in that we do not
sell you a “share” of a bar, we
do whole bars/coins only.
You have the choice to buy gold in whatever form you want. Krugs,
Eagles, Pamp Bars, Kilo Bars, all the way up to 400 oz bars but it’s
never a share. GBI created this model because we don’t believe
owning four ounces of gold that is a part of a larger bar qualifies
as actually owning gold. We want clients to own whole bars with zero
counterparty risk.
We really want to democratize the ownership process. Until now only
the ultra-wealthy could order whole, allocated bars, stored
in non-banks,
audited
and insured
by
a real firm. Now, literally, anyone can.
FOFOA: Is
it true allocated storage? Do I have bar numbers on my statement? In
other words, am I technically just a creditor of GBI, or am I hiring
you to find, buy and store a specific, discrete product for me? And
what
happens if GBI goes bankrupt?
Joe: The
specific bars are allocated to [and
owned by?]
specific
clients. If GBI went bankrupt, or if any firm purchasing gold
through our platform went bankrupt you are NOT a creditor of GBI or
those firms. [You
are a creditor of the depository in Salt Lake City or elsewhere
(after your purchase transaction is fully complete).]The
metal is held in your name. We have the ability to show serial
numbers on statements for larger bars if requested. [What
about smaller pieces?]
FOFOA: What
are the barriers to me taking physical possession of my gold? Can I
come in and see my bars or coins, touch them, spend some time with
them? Say I buy some gold bars through GBI and ask to have them
stored in SLC, and then something happens in the world that makes me
want to drive to SLC and walk out with my bars. Can I do that and
how much would it cost? One concern I have is how variable
conversion fees could potentially be used as a deterrent during the
decoupling of the unknown value of physical from the known, official
paper price of gold.
Joe: Delivery
or take-out! We strongly, and I emphasize strongly prefer
[So
you emphasize that it's not guaranteed as of now.]
to
deliver
the metal to you at a set modest fee plus actual delivery cost,
either through UPS up to $250k or armored transport for more.
The reason behind this is we store with commercial, non-bank vaults.
The issue is that they are primarily commercial facilities. They
aren’t really set up with a customer service agent waiting for
people to drop in, and they already request 24-48 hours notice
before someone comes by, only because if someone “drops in”
they may or may not have someone there authorized to even enter the
gold vault that may only be accessible by some people at set hours
of the day.
That
being said, you are free to go to the vault, see your gold and touch
it. If you want to take
delivery in person
there'll
be a nominal fixed fee no matter how much gold you're picking up.
That's to dis-incentivize those with say 10 coins in storage, but it
would be a very modest take-out fee for someone storing few kilo
bars.
However,
if you store smaller amounts, if you come to look at your gold,
you'll have to take it. What we want to avoid as a business matter
is every
guy out there wanting to stop by and see his 10 Krugerrands.
So what we’ll likely do is if you want to see it, you need to
pay the fee and take it, or just let us ship it to you. Obviously
for larger amounts we will accommodate a free viewing, but from a
business standpoint we’d prefer to discourage that so as not
to have a problem with our custodian.
The
bottom line is clients
[of
GBI?] will
always have the ability to have their gold delivered, always. [Say
GBI is bankrupt. That client would be a former client, or what?]This
point is key to who we are.
FOFOA: Would
GBI be an acceptable investment in physical for an IRA? I get this
and similar questions a lot. Owning physical gold in a
"transition-friendly" account can be problematic depending
on the third-party restrictions placed on some funds.
Joe: GBI
does accept gold through two different trust companies. The
IRS requires a trust company to hold the bullion in your IRA.
And
yes, we do handle trust accounts. I hope that answers your
question.
FOFOA: I
have an investment advisor that wants to recommend physical to his
clients. But it’s hard to make a commission off that. Will you
have such arrangements with small RIA’s?
Joe: Yes,
yes a thousand times yes. We envision this platform being utilized
by advisors and banks, foreign and domestic, to offer gold accounts
alongside traditional checking, saving and brokerage accounts. GBI
is in discussions with many of these institutions now, and my
job is going to be reaching out to more,
large and small in this country and around the world. We fully
integrate gold holdings into the client statements, and placing a
buy or sell order will be as easy as entering it from the
workstation at the branch, or of they prefer, a privately labeled
web portal for their clients to do real time transactions.
The
whole purpose of this platform is to give financial professionals
the ability (wirehouse, RIA’s, etc) to provide
their clients physical, allocated gold, with live trading and best
price execution with storage independent of banks and financial
institutions.
When I started interviewing at GBI they were up front that in their
mind, they were a
technology company first.
They are on a mission to create the first, most efficient real time
physical exchange that can be fully integrated into clients'
financial accounts. My
job is to market
this
platform to financial institutions, and at some times, to the
advisors themselves. The technology is fantastic, and the platform
is extremely user friendly. I placed an order through my own account
[a
wholesale interface or a retail John Doe interface?]just
to see the prices. They were very competitive and [shouldn't
that and
be
but?]
when
placed through an advisor will, to some degree at his discretion,
depend on how he prices his business. [So
John Doe won't know how good a price he
got.]
I
gave up a very comfortable job and a great situation to take this
position. I truly believe this has the potential to be a game
changer. No one does what we do, and as we add more and more firms,
I believe the sky is the limit in terms of potential. The growth is
really just starting. We are starting to see unsolicited demand from
overseas clients, and chatting with the CEO [Savneet
Singh,
Founder/Chief Executive Officer]
the
close ratio on the meetings he’s going on is very high. I
believe that’s because once these institutions see what we
offer, it’s something they have never seen before, but they’ve
been looking for it.
The
beauty of our platform is that it’s completely white
labeled, in that to an "Acme Financial" client and
advisor, it looks like Acme's own program and we’re content
keeping it that way. The same would be the case with any client we
bring on. We privately [re]brand
our platform for any client we bring on and we have the capability
of fully integrating it into their systems. There are many
applications to hedge funds as well, specifically that we can set
them up with their own web portal and they can make real time
transactions to buy and sell physical. It may not be how they do
their very active trading, but I don’t see why every hedge
fund wouldn’t want to buy and custody their core gold position
this way. [Because
there are several well-established alternatives?]
It’s
much more simple and cost effective than trying to broker the
transaction, transportation, storage and insurance themselves.
I
hope none of you think this is an advertisement or a paid
endorsement of GBI, because it's quite the opposite. I asked Joe if
I could have his permission to write about it. He even asked me to
take some of the best stuff out because, unfortunately, it is
proprietary non-public information. But I thought it would be easier
to write it up in a post than to email all the readers individually
who I thought would like to have this introduction. That's what this
post is. A DYODD [These
pink comments are a good whack at MODD. FNC]introduction
to Joe and GBI.
I have no stake in this company, I have
not been paid, and I will not be buying gold through GBI myself. I
still recommend taking delivery and keeping your physical in your
possession (or at least under your immediate control),
but I do understand that this is not always the most practical
advice for some of my HNW readers, nor is it practical for some
types of funds under various restrictions. So I'm happy to announce
that I have finally come across an alternative that I believe rises
above the rest in terms of being "transition-friendly".
What
do I mean by that? Well, if you take the time to really understand
Freegold-RPG, what I write about here, you'll know that getting
there consists of three phases: a stasis followed by a punctuation
followed by a new stasis. And it is during the punctuation phase or
"transition" that I
believe we will have a brief period of "peak risk". What
risk, you ask? Well, it is the risk that your expected transition
gain will be taken (or simply kept) by someone else, and you'll be
cashed out at the official, legal price of gold; a price at which no
physical can be found at that time.
I'm
not going to say much more about it here. But as ANOTHER would say,
think long and hard on this.
[1]
___________________________________________________________
[1]
I believe that allocated storage at the Perth Mint would be a
comparable solution for restricted money if you physically reside in
Australia. But for residents of Europe and the US, I
would personally choose the storage facility closest to me.
I
like knowing that, if conditions suddenly warrant it, I can drive or
fly there to pick up my coins or bars for a fixed fee; a fee
independent of the size or value of my stash. I would not request
delivery, though, during the "transition" while the
official price of gold backed by the legal system cannot fetch any
actual physical gold. I'd either leave it there with everyone else's
(ride it out) or pick it up in
person.
___________________________________________________________
But
what I found particularly post-worthy about this topic was that we
have a true insider at this company! Joe has been reading FOFOA for
more than two years now, and that's what gave him the confidence to
leave a very nice job in order to pursue a golden dream. And as he
said, GBI is primarily a[n
under-the-hood]
technology
company, an electronic trading platform integrated with actual
physical off-take, which is why they hired Joe for his physical gold
market savvy. To me this is a brilliant opportunity for both
him and us.
The company is still new enough that Joe's presence there is shaping
its structure. My emails with Joe have already influenced company
policy. Granted, it was in a very small way (sorry, can't tell you
exactly how), but it was beneficial to the durability of this
business model from a "transitional" perspective. So yay,
it's already more Freegold-friendly.
There are three
main points
that
caught my attention:
1. This business model/trading
platform has the potential to be a real game-changer in the physical
gold market. It opens a door to a massive pool of potential demand
that was previously cut off from the accumulation of physical gold
in true, *UNAMBIGUOUS* personal
(or institutional) ownership, outside of the opaque and dubious
bullion banking system. I could even see this as a good way for all
types of corporate entities to hold real gold assets safely through
the transition.
As the CEO says in the videos below, it
democratizes an important method of physical gold accumulation that
was previously a difficult, expensive and sometimes-exclusionary
process. It makes [would
make, if nobody stops them.]
including
real gold in an investment portfolio by individuals, IRAs, Trust
funds and institutions as easy as stocks and bonds. Best of all, for
the first time, it gives money managers a financial
incentive to
recommend unambiguous coins and bars in a portfolio rather than
trying to steer clients away from physical gold. [It
appears to allow them to price a retail account any way they please.
So what else is new?]
2.
It answers almost all of the toughest questions I get from readers
and supporters.
3. There's an FOFOA reader inside this
company who understands the principles and concepts we explore, and
he's in at the ground floor (or close to it anyway).
Here's
a video that Joe sent me of Savneet Singh, the CEO, and Peter
Custer, the Chief Technology Officer, explaining their new gold
trading platform at Finovate last May in San Francisco:
Video
of CEO
And here's another one of Savneet on Bloomberg last week:
In
one of his first posts back in 1997, ANOTHER wrote the
following:
"The
LBMA problem"
I can now make clear for all to
see.
Background; to understand the following you must rethink
your basic knowledge of money and investments. Get your aspirin
ready.
Some time ago gold not only was used as money but also
circulated as currency. It had always been money and people had no
use for a separate currency to represent "gold money" so
they stamped the gold itself and used it as circulating currency.
From the start, one thing most thinkers can't quite grasp is that
"money does not have to circulate"! The first "world
money", gold money that is, could stay locked up and still
represent value and wealth. People had but to agree on who owned it
in exchange for goods and services.
The
idea of physical gold sitting somewhere in a centralized vault and
only its ownership changing hands is not a new concept. Neither is
it an essentially flawed concept. I believe it is perfectly safe
today (as long as the wheels stay on this bus) to store your gold
with a credible custodian. And I believe it will be perfectly safe,
and perhaps even preferable, to do so in the new monetary system of
the future. But the time of "peak risk" will be, I
believe, that brief period of phase transition between the $IMFS and
Freegold-RPG.
It
is in preparation for this transition that we
want to be holding our gold in the most *unambiguous* way
possible.
And the most unambiguous way is paid in full, in your hand
ownership. But when that's not possible or at least practical, we'd
like to own our gold in unambiguous lots (either specific coins or
numbered bars) outside of the bullion banks and their opaque
networks built upon the flexible concept of ambiguity.
When
gold is finally revalued, it will happen in the dark. You won't be
able to see it happening on your ticker. And the
de facto transfer of wealth that will occur will only flow to
specific ounces of physical gold, not to ambiguous claims on some
amorphous thing called gold.
Ambiguity leads to more people thinking they have exposure to the
revaluation than the amount of value there will be to go around. It
also leads to the potential for the abuse of claims, since for a
brief time the price backed by the legal system may be very
different than the value of the actual physical in custody.
During
"normal times" this is not an issue. Today, as well as
after the transition, if you store $100K in gold you hold $100K
worth of unleveraged real money. But it is during this dark, hidden
transition that the unleveraged becomes hyper-leverage. ANOTHER
wrote:
Our
history will read, that persons of simple life, will find they have
made the greatest leverage investment ever seen and thought of it as
only a small trade. When
gold moves from "bottom to top of world currencies",
many will find their assets in the "Estate Of Kings"
And
here are a few FOA quotes on the hidden leverage in unambiguous
physical gold ownership:
Today,
physical gold advocates are the real gold bugs as they now possess
the real leverage paper players only think they
have!
++++++++++++
Well, I can tell you that the
further we travel this trail, the higher the eventual cash
settlement of all gold paper will be and the less that settlement
will be allowed to match any "free physical"
price.
++++++++++++
By holding physical gold you are
owning a super leveraged "derivative" that will be
exchangeable against the value of real things at a par level lost to
the minds of most investors. Today, physical gold purchased in
dollar values is discounting its worth by perhaps 100 times. For us
PGAs, that is a leverage worth "playing the physical game for"!
(smile)
++++++++++++
It is from here that we can
understand the awesome leverage contained in holding but one ounce
of gold. Here, on this ledge overlooking the entire golden valley,
we can see this truth! Yet, it is a revelation to gold buyers as
much as a curse on gold industry and leveraged paper investors. They
spend their days, consuming their wealth, betting on a price that
cannot represent gold until it fails. Destroying all they wait
for.
From here, we understand why the current prices for gold
do not have any bearing on the buying habits of the major players
that walk this trail. As Another has said "The price you know,
it be your price, not my price".
It is true, we
are buying gold, not to trade for a paper value created today.
Rather, to hold it beyond the paper destruction that must come
tomorrow. Gamblers, traders and gold substitute players will all
witness a colossal shift in world wealth that degrades their
holdings. Even as their bet on half the process is proven as a folly
very typical in human nature. Only unseeable as it
exists.
++++++++++++
The leverage today will be in a
physical gold position, not any other form of gold ownership.
By accumulating physical gold today, we are truly walking in the
footsteps of giants; advancing with them as they work thru this
singular, long term political move.
In
this game of musical chairs, unambiguous, discrete pieces of
physical gold are the chairs. Do you have your chair? Or do you own
a claim ticket good for a portion of a chair?
How will the newly revealed value be distributed? Will those that
could potentially keep it for themselves hand over your fair share?
Another wrote:
The
BIS will not allow the distribution of all gold to settle
claims.
And
then FOA:
Somehow,
the BIS and the major private gold holders know the total claims, as
does Another. The Euro group is going to force those claims into
real bids instead of just claims!
Again,
what do you have? Do
you have your
chair,
or do you have a claim check that's supposedly good for a
chair?
And
when will the music stop? I don't know and I don't care, because
I've
already got my chair.
The greater "precious metals investment" industry has many
different products to sell you. This is a big discussion and one
that lends itself to a lot of different viewpoints. In reality, it
all boils down to risk assessment and your personal situation. But I
don't know anywhere else on the net where you'll get more straight
talk than here.
So
what do you think of GBI? Am I correct in my three points above?
[The
devil is in the details. This is so obvious that, were it possible,
it would have been done before. This way underestimates the
hostility of governments and central banks to John Doe 'hoarding'
physical. ....... -FNC]
Is there anything they could do to make GBI more Freegold-RPG
transition friendly? I know that Joe will be following the comments
here with great interest, so please let him know what you
think.
And if you are one of those who would have
supported this blog last week had the market not puked on
Wednesday, it's never too late. It's not just about FOFOA's third
anniversary. It is a contribution to keeping this blog and
discussion forum alive in the hope that others may experience the
benefits you have received.
For some it has
strengthened their "weak" hands, it has gotten other
people out of paper and into physical, for others it has reset their
valuation of gold above levels they would have already
sold at long ago and
for others it has helped to crystallize their thinking about the
importance of gold in preserving their wealth.
And it
provides a continuing benefit to all of us as a forum for
discussion, intellectual stimulation and a place where we can get a
confidence boost when the dreck from the MSM rattles our
nerves.
Maybe you had an "A-ha moment" as a result
of this blog and realized that your small stack of gold may someday
have the same purchasing power as an LGD bar at today's prices. If
so, then please click on my small, but most
definitely *unambiguous* stack
of gold coins and make a contribution. Thank you! :)
Sincerely,
FOFOA
Posted by FOFOA at 7:18 PM
56 comments:
Joel said...On the issue of banks investing in gold, I am a former board member and investor in a state chartered bank. Ironically, our regulators view gold as a "risky investment." They will not allow us to invest in it, even though our equity is totally at risk. Inflation is a bank's worst enemy (given that they have no debt like most other businesses), and yet we are prevented from deploying the best protection there is--gold. It is maddening.
Michael said...Personal experience: Fidelity has a service that will store [where?] allocated coins in an IRA and Roth IRA. I have been assured that I can have mine with the proper notice and that I have in fact a certain number of (in my case) Buffalos. I paid 1% commission to purchase.
the only fee is shipping on the way out.
I would dearly love to be able to deposit (small fee acceptable) coins and bars in the USA with the assurances I could withdraw them in (say) Hong Kong or Thailand or...the best would be ANYWHERE THEY OPERATE, (Second best is I can choose the storage location(s)).
This would solve the Sovereign Man suggestion (as well as the Marc Faber suggestion) to have gold stored abroad and alleviate the problem of transport. This is especially true for those who are already ALL INN. We 'believe' but we don't want to sell and re-buy because of the transaction costs.
victorthecleaner said...You write the dollar will hyperinflate, but the euro is great.
I explain that the euro is suffering from a huge load of debt in the same fashion as the dollar and that this debt will force the ECB to act like the Fed and to buy bad debt for cash just as the Fed does.
You say that might be the case for old debt, but nobody can force the ECB to pay for future government expenditures by printing money.
I explain in quite some detail why the ECB is on the hook for future government debt as well.
You repeat that you think the dollar will hyperinflate, but that the euro is great.
Let's close the discussion here. In a few years, when you notice that there is a growing gap between reality and your belief-system, you can always come back to this discussions in order to refresh some facts.
Victor
victorthecleaner said...Whether or not Venezuela’s gold is held in these fractionally-backed sight accounts, or in earmarked accounts where the gold is held separately, we do not actually know
and
It is a fair bet that the International Monetary Fund’s 2009 sales of 212 tonnes of gold to other central banks are held in sight accounts as a condition of sale. India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka, who bought this gold, must be very nervous.
I wonder what is the evidence for this claim (that the IMF sales have not been allocated gold). I also wonder which price the buyers have paid for the 400 tonnes of IMF gold. Getting 400 tonnes, allocated, for the London spot price would have been a fantastic deal.
Victor
Robert Mix said...First, I have my/our own physical gold stashed in six (now!) different places, three quite handy ("enough" gold in two of those as well), three less conveniently located. It would be VERY HARD for "them" to get all of my/our gold...
Second, I already do have an allocated gold bar stored in a vault (unfortunately located far from me), the refiner, serial number, weight and fineness all arrive on the statement from my bank (the bar is held as part of a long-term trust). Since it is so far from me, I have NOT had a chance to request to go SEE IT, I do not even know the procedures, how much notice to give, etc. I need to get there sometime to "check" that investment.
Third, it sure would be nice (but illegal?) if there was a way to buy gold from GBI anonymously, or nearly so. Make a quiet 10 oz or one kilo purchase here in the USA for cash, and tell them to hold it in Zurich...
Fourth, despite the relative transparency of their business model, HOW MUCH WOULD YOU TRUST SOMEONE ELSE to deliver (or give you upon your visit) your gold if/when TSHTF? I would not buy ALL of my gold from any company like that. Some, yes, OK. As sort of in my case.
Finally, I applaud both his and your efforts (FOFOA) to get me and everyone else into the REAL THING, as I too see a BIG quantum jump in gold coming. When? Beats me?
78Rubies said...
JR said...1) Of course the Euro will print Victor, we live in an easy money world of the $IMFS. From my reply to you last thread
"This Global Financial Crisis is not so much about the dollar as it is about the dollar system, the $IMFS. The dollar system is a system of selling debt as a wealth reserve..."
So how do you view an "old world gold economy" through modern eyes? And how do you move there (FREEGOLD) peacefully with the easy money camp (from the current $IMFS)? ... you don't deprive the easy money camp of their precious fiat.
**********************************
2 - If Freegold is inevitable, its all about being positioned for it when it occurs, no? Then why are you talking about the euro in the context of the $IMFS, like this:
"This is the reason why the ECB is trapped. Either they treat future debt the same way as existing debt and buy a good part of the running budget deficit, or they immediately face the choice between depression versus buying all debt for cash.
This is qualitatively the same decision as in the US."
Its obvious you didn't read what I wrote last thread, so i will repeat it:
"In terms of trying to understand the future debt obligations, think on this:
The euro might quickly devalue against the physical plane during the transition when the $IMFS goes to relieve some of the past debt burden, with gold going up as an asset on the balance sheet to provide an offset for the saver class. not a running hyperinflation, but a devaluation.
A quick devaluation (against the physical plane) in both the euro and the dollar would have very different outcomes for the two currencies.
Remember, its not about printing per se, its about market demand for the currency, the printing is a response to the loss of value. So what happens when both the dollar and the euro devalue? **Very different outcomes for the two currencies.** "
cont.
Biju said...(1) Personally I prefer to have the Gold locally within reach, since I am inherently a paranoid person. external custody is a problem for me.
(2) I believe in the wisdom of our forefathers - which means we store our Gold locally.
(3) Buying physical and storing it locally means there is less tendency of selling Gold due to greed(price rising) or fear(price falling fast). It takes more time to get to dealer and sell it instead of a click of a mouse.
JR said...Synthesis:
Fiat currency, for all its flaws, has provided the flexibility and computer-age transaction ease and record-keeping that is valued by not only those few ego-maniacs that believe they can control everything, but also by business and productive enterprise. So it is not going away no matter how good the argument. But the worst of its flaws can, and will, be neutralized. And this is where (what I like to call) Freegold makes its debut.
Here is an important question: Is it theoretically possible for a fiat currency to devalue, or more precisely, to hyper-depreciate against only one single asset without affecting the price of a can of peas?
Of course it is! Just look at any number of investments that have appreciated quickly by an order of magnitude or two. Look at GOOG! Or how about AAPL? When an asset appreciates against a currency can we not also view it as the currency depreciating against that one asset? Or more precisely, can we not say that the asset was awaiting massive revaluation based on market recognition of its value?
Now, what if the revalued asset is gold, a monetary asset held by Central Banks? What could such a revaluation do to today's dynamics of national debt?
cont.
Bron said...Some observations/questions (meant in a constructive way):
1. It would be nice to have your client agreement on the website. Devil is in the detail and it is hard to assess risks without the actual legals.
2. There is no mention of who the custodians are, I'm assuming Via Mat [Via Mat appears to be a transport/logistics service, not a repository with vaults.]is one of them?
3. I gather this - “An internationally recognized auditing firm provides quarterly audit of precious metal holdings for each Broker/Dealer” and “GBI will not have a relationship with any Retail Client by virtue of the Retail Client’s purchase or sale of precious metals through a Broker and GBI will not know the identity of any Retail Client” – means that clients buying via an advisor do not have the metal in their name?
4. In the case of GBI Direct, does the client have an independent signed agreement with the Custodian and/or sufficient personal information that would enable the Custodian to independently verify that a person was the legal owner of metal held with them (eg in the case that GBI ceased business)?
5. I note you say the metal is "fully insured". I'd check on this as it is unlikely to be the case for a custodian with more than a few billion in metal held. By way of explanation, most custodians have a first loss policy with a specific dollar amount of cover. My understanding is that the Lloyds market would be unable to cover over a couple of billion in value per site and the cost to get additional cover in other markets would be prohibitive.
Generally custodians work on the basis that it is physically difficult to steal more than a billion in metal in one theft, so they only get cover for a billion, say. However, the total value of metal stored would be in excess of this. How else do you think GLD's custodian can offer a 0.15% storage fee?
For example, if you are holding $800m with Custodian in Zurich and GoldMoney is holding $800m with same Custodian and the Custodian says they have $1000m in cover, you are NOT fully insured. If there was a loss (which would include fraud/collusion by employees of Custodian as well as theft by a third party) of $1200m worth of metal, Custodian is only going to get $1000m. The question is who is going to take the $200m loss, you or GoldMoney, or will Custodian apportion it between the both of you?
6. Depending on the answers to 4 & 5, I’d be careful about saying “We want clients to own whole bars with zero counterparty risk.” My view is if you don’t hold it yourself, you have counterparty risk, period. I’ve others say that because the metal in their systems is allocated there is no counterparty risk, just “performance risk”. This is semantics. There is risk if you hold metal yourself, there are different risks if you hold it with someone else. It would be better to say ““We want clients to own whole bars with minimal risk.”
JR said...Europe is now living under a new currency, but it is still functioning under the dollar's global financial system that encourages infinite debt accumulation, infinite growth of imbalances, and financial trickery to pretend the system is stable and extend its timeline.
All the benefits and architectural innovations of the ECB stand in place now as a kind of safety net for the Eurozone for whenever the $IMFS collapses under its own weight. And the signs of this happening sometime soon are ominous and many.
It is easy and convenient for the financial press to blame the Eurozone problems on the euro itself. But I am here to show you that they are actually caused by the dollar system, counterintuitive as that may seem...
Unsustainable Deficits
The pressure on the $IMFS is building EVERYWHERE! From Greece to California, from the ECB to DC. And what exactly is all this pressure? It is unsustainable deficit spending... DEBT!
And what is the ONLY solution to this? What is the pressure release valve? It is different depending on whether you are a sovereign net creditor/saver or if you are a sovereign debtor. For the creditor/savers the ONLY solution is CUT OFF THE CREDIT and thereby FORCE AUSTERITY. If you are a debtor, the ONLY solution is DEVALUE THE CURRENCY, or more precisely, ALLOW the currency to hyper-depreciate. Yes, default is an option, but not for a sovereign that prints its own money, and not for any too-big-to-fail entities under the umbrella of such a sovereign...
The US dollar MUST devalue (one way or another) against the entire physical world. Think about this. The euro, on the other hand, might just hyper-depreciate against only one specific asset. An asset that happens to also be a MONETARY asset held by its member debtors.
cont.
JR said..."Devaluations always happen by necessity. They can be triggered either intentionally internally, intentionally externally or unintentionally naturally. They happen because they are ultimately necessary to both parties and to nature itself. But the party that feels the pressure most, enough to trigger the devaluation first tends to profit the most from it...
The hyperinflation of the dollar is already a done deal. It has been since the 90's at least. Massive quantities of perceived dollars already exist stored in debt held globally and inside the US. Europe knows this. They have known this was inevitable since at least the mid-90's when they changed plans and went with higher gold reserves for the new ECB. They have always been willing to wait for it to happen naturally, unless the EU itself faces an existential threat from debt brought on by the $IMFS. And in this case, I believe their only option is a targeted hyper-depreciation of the euro.
By "targeted", I mean that the euro devaluation would be targeted to go only into gold. Gold can absorb a devaluation if you do it carefully, and in turn devalue the debt without causing inflationary havoc.
Of course this would cause the hyper-depreciation of the dollar as well. Only the dollar's collapse would be against all of creation, not just one asset."
Cheers, J.R.
M said...
radix46 said...GBI, nor anyone else like them will ever see any business from me. It's nothing personal, just business. My precious is just too precious.
elegantstroke said...What if the dollar got the same gold backing as Euro? All that's required is that the gold reserves in the US should be marked to the actual value (and not the transactional value), right?
FOFOA,
Great post. Long as usual, but very informative. One important thing left out was the storage cost. [Storage cost is apparently added on by the retailer ('adviser') in one way or another. -FNC] This would matter for investors of small worth.
JR said...Its more like the euro is "backed" by a credible promise gold will flow, so it may be more than just MTM (although MTM is a *big* step).
From It's the Flow, Stupid:
"If Congress DID decide to mark the US stockpile of gold to market today it would find it had a new stream of revenue. At today's price of $1,328 per ounce, the US gold would be worth $347 billion. Subtract the $11 billion already on the Fed balance sheet and Congress could immediately ask the Fed to credit the US Treasury with $336 billion new dollars to be spent.
And then, if they let the value of the gold float, anytime the price rises, they could issue more fancy dollar-denominated gold certificates to the Fed and be credited with new dollars to spend. In fact, at a Freegold price of $55,000 per ounce, Congress could retire the entire US national debt without giving up a single ounce of gold, merely monetizing what it already has through the Federal Reserve. But what will really happen someday soon is the additional step of opening the vault and allowing that gold to FLOW again, but at a floating price. With this one move Congress wouldn't have to retire the entire national debt because credibility would be reestablished.
You see, the European gold reserves are far better, far more credible than the US gold reserve, simply because they engage in a two-way gold market, and have for decades. The US gold has been hoarded and locked away for more than 30 years, never deployed in case of emergency. The European CB's took a lot of flak for selling gold over the past two decades, but that action is precisely what makes them so much more credible (and valuable!) than the US gold hoard. Any trading partner knows full well that if all else fails, gold will be paid.
The price of gold today is unstable. Anyone with eyes can see that. Worse, it's rising. Which means the flow of physical gold in the quantities needed (at today's gold price) to lubricate global trade is drying up.
"Gold has always been funny in that way. So many people worldwide think of it as money, it tends to dry up as the price rises."
But the flow of physical gold WILL be reestablished. The world demands it. It doesn't care how high the price goes, only that the flow is guaranteed. Only the $IMFS seems to care about how high the price goes. And, apparently, that is because the $IMFS is the main printer of paper gold. Flow WILL be credibly and sustainably reestablished, which means paper gold WILL be discredited. Flow is sustainably and infinitely guaranteed at a floating, physical-only price. What that price is in today's world is anyone's guess because we haven't had such a market in centuries."
Cheers, J.R.
JR said...Yes, the U.S. will ultimately mobilize its gold in defense of its failing transactional dollar, as I intimated in the post. But that will be at a much higher price of gold relative to "April 2011 constant dollars". So the gold will go a lot further than it would if we mobilized (physically sold) it today. But it will also be during a crash in the dollar relative to real necessities like food and oil. FOA wrote about this.
I have written in the past that the only hope there is to avoid a full-blown hyperinflation would be for the U.S. to proactively introduce Freegold, even inadvertently. This is not something I just thought of. But I have also pointed out how this scenario has a near-zero probability because the morons in Washington would never think to do that. But heck, it's worth a shot, isn't it?
It is difficult to visualize the coming crash because you have to understand how Freegold and currency collapse can happen simultaneously, yet be separate events. And one can actually absorb some of the other. Quicker, sooner, more open Freegold (less gold in hiding) might equate to a little milder currency collapse.
You suggest the world may say, "Thanks, but you are a day late and many trillion short. We are happy you have joined us at the All Inn, but today, for you, there is an entrance fee."
This will have a lot more to do with the failure of paper gold than paper Treasuries. Treasuries perform by running the printing press. Paper gold performs by delivering physical gold. Try to imagine international claims against the U.S. made up of a "basket" only containing gold and dollars. The dollar is collapsing in value while gold is skyrocketing, and the U.S. has to settle some of these "basket claims" during this dynamic time. Less and less physical gold will combine with more and more dollars to keep the basket even. Can you see the dynamic?
cont.
JR said...Oops, bad link above - FOFOA comment to Reference Point: Gold - Update #2
"here's a taste from FOA:
As most of you will no doubt agree, almost all gold discussion still centers around "the dollar's war with gold". Truly, the evolution of this story will be how that war ended then and now the dollar's war with the Euro began! A very large part of that war strategy, employed by the ECB/BIS, was to let the dollar/IMF faction hang themselves by expanding and supporting the whole arena of this dollar paper gold market. Inflating the gold marketplace with so much "paper gold" that we would eventually have to bankrupt ourselves just to keep the dollar in the war game against the Euro.
Because Saudi Arabia is a member of the BIS and marks its currency to the SDR, we are going to be hard pressed, for oil reasons, not to ship [gold] against demands. Perhaps, oil's continued settlement in dollars is directly tied to gold,,,, Do ya think?
Further, much of the current credit in our modern gold market place is backed with this "legal tender" [the SDR] of the IMF. As we have contended for years, 90% of the entire modern dollar gold market is a paper game first, and that will burn as the dollar loses its position as the reserve currency. All these Giants that are holding physical gold and "credible paper" are going to win big as escalating gold values displace their dollar asset base. There are a few of you smart cookies out there that "NOW" understand what we have been getting at for such a long time.
[…]
At the right time the Euro Zone will withdraw from the IMF, leaving the US and its factions as the only support for dollar credit assets held overseas. Then the evolution of SDR use our guide knows so well will be complete. This will leave the SDR interpretation open to only one avenue to finding support: its basket currency function dissolved, gold will have to flow from American based [gold stockpiles]. With most of the present official credit gold leverage built upon IMF protocols, the US will find itself shipping ever higher priced gold to defend an ever lower valuation of dollar exchange rates.
With the world credit gold markets paralyzed in default and dollar credibility placed in question along with American economic stamina; physical gold will return to official hands in Europe in exchange for Euros. A paradox observed as high gold places more demands upon Euros and sends the dollar ever lower."
Cheers, J.R.
mortymer said...
mortymer said...You will maybe find this one interesting:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/aeg/papers/m4Gold.PDF
JR said...How well timed. ;) Lets chat about the SDR not as a reserve, but as a UofA!
FOA from my post above:
Because Saudi Arabia is a member of the BIS and marks its currency to the SDR, we are going to be hard pressed, for oil reasons, not to ship [gold] against demands. Perhaps, oil's continued settlement in dollars is directly tied to gold,,,, Do ya think?
Further, much of the current credit in our modern gold market place is backed with this "legal tender" [the SDR] of the IMF. As we have contended for years, 90% of the entire modern dollar gold market is a paper game first, and that will burn as the dollar loses its position as the reserve currency. All these Giants that are holding physical gold and "credible paper" are going to win big as escalating gold values displace their dollar asset base. There are a few of you smart cookies out there that "NOW" understand what we have been getting at for such a long time.
[…]
At the right time the Euro Zone will withdraw from the IMF, leaving the US and its factions as the only support for dollar credit assets held overseas. Then the evolution of SDR use our guide knows so well will be complete. This will leave the SDR interpretation open to only one avenue to finding support: its basket currency function dissolved, gold will have to flow from American based [gold stockpiles]. With most of the present official credit gold leverage built upon IMF protocols, the US will find itself shipping ever higher priced gold to defend an ever lower valuation of dollar exchange rates.
MOAR FOA fromhttp://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailfive.html:
As this reserve currency transition, or perhaps war is a better term, moves on; the ECB must shift it's thrust with a leadership statement. Wim Duisenberg provided an excellent political cover for selling into the American paper gold market; as it exists around the world today. His national pedigree demonstrated a distinct flavor against gold as a monetary reserve. Truly, the ECB could not be seen prompting all their big bullion banks to short American paper gold, if they ECB / BIS were serious gold advocates. In our time of Western thinking, who could understand such a contradiction? But, politically, the game was to serve two goals; temporally support the dollar for trade settlement until the Euro was on its feet (sending gold prices down); and inflating the American led gold market until it burst from over issuance. A good chunck of this ties into the SDR issue that I'll get to later...
I have presented this topic many times and again state that "all gold paper will burn". Most mine values included. Then and only then will gold values soar as physical units traded. Not before. As an adjunct, the illusion of most American paper wealth will also burn with this process that transitions the dollar away from reserve status.
At the right time the Euro Zone will withdraw from the IMF, leaving the US and its factions as the only support for dollar credit assets held overseas. Then the evolution of SDR use our guide knows so well will be complete. This will leave the SDR interpretation open to only one avenue to finding support: it's basket currency function dissolved, gold will have to flow from American based stocks. With most of the present official credit gold leverage built upon IMF protocols, the US will find itself shipping ever higher priced gold to defend an ever lower valuation of dollar exchange rates.
With the world credit gold markets paralyzed in default and dollar credibility placed in question along with American economic stamina; physical gold will return to official hands in Europe in exchange for Euros. A paradox observed as high gold places more demands upon Euros and sends the dollar ever lower.
cont.
JR said...Still, as part of this political war of economies and currencies, the ECB / BIS played into our gold war theme. Aside from a separate strategy that kept cheap gold commitments flowing for cheap oil,,,,, Euroland played our gold war, too, as we murdered the paper marketplace along with the whole dollar gold system it was built on. I think that the US, just recently, caught on to the "total meaning" of the Washington agreement and is now rethinking what to do with their position.
They shifted their war on gold to become a war on the Euro,,,, only too late. Now, knowing that the Euro is a fact, we must have a super gold price if the dollar is to stay in the game! The question becomes one of supporting a cheap paper price for the sole function of keeping the market and all its bullion players alive. With the war on gold over, they need to turn their tanks around to face the real enemy but cannot.
If we try to save the dollar gold markets, they will morph into a pure paper system with no gold supply to back them; paper would eventually be priced way below world physical markets. They will become a pure cash settlement item, in a way like the OEX. This will easily drive oil pricing into Euros. If we adopt a week dollar policy, trash the IMF and it's SDRs (prior to ECB withdrawal) we will have to supply gold bullion outright and allow a true market price based on some currency supporting function; still at thousands per ounce. Our entire anglo - London gold markets will spin off hugh,,,,, nation busting financial loses. By the way,,,, this is why our boy is driving for EMU as soon as possible. (smile)
In all of this; the main story / component is oil supply! We must keep our dollar function, if only in a diminished fashion, in order to buy oil imports. Once the dollar fully fails, everyone (our partners like Mexico and Canada) will bolt for using Euros as reserves and international settlements. OIL value in the US would spike sky high even as local inflation drives alternative energy supplies to become uneconomic to produce. Even at $200 a barrel equivalent.
**********************************
Yay! Mortymer, from above regarding your talk of the IMF:
If we adopt a week dollar policy, trash the IMF and it's SDRs (prior to ECB withdrawal) we will have to supply gold bullion outright and allow a true market price based on some currency supporting function; still at thousands per ounce....
Because Saudi Arabia is a member of the BIS and marks it's currency to the SDR, we are going to be hard pressed, for oil reasons, not to ship against demands. Perhaps, oil's continued settlement in dollars is directly tied to gold,,,, Do ya think?
Further, much of the current credit in our modern gold market place is backed with this "legal tender" of the IMF. As we have contended for years, 90% of the entire modern dollar gold market is a paper game first, and that will burn as the dollar loses it's position as the reserve currency. All these Giants that are holding physical gold and credible paper" are going to win big as escalating gold values displace their dollar asset base. There are a few of you smart cookies out there that "NOW" understand what we have been getting at for such a long time.
Cheers, J.R.
JR said...Try to imagine international claims against the U.S. made up of a "basket" only containing gold and dollars. The dollar is collapsing in value while gold is skyrocketing, and the U.S. has to settle some of these "basket claims" during this dynamic time. Less and less physical gold will combine with more and more dollars to keep the basket even. Can you see the dynamic?
I know you see Mortymer, do others?
mortymer said...A side comment first...
["my SDR friend!!" please leave for once those personal issues and labeling aside. Once you call me this then that. I try to map the landscape and see where we are and how the monetary plane is changing. I have a different approach than you and instead of archives I search in present documents. I do not prefer the SDR over gold. How could I? There is nowhere to run than gold anyway... That is more clear even to those who do not get it. SDR is anyway not for public... I am quite positive that freegold will appear one day, just not sure about the timeframe and how the IMFs could play this...
It seems to me that IMF card and its SDR is used to slow and soften the transition and that is all... What I see is IMF org getting closer to the BIS view and there is a big cooperation between CBs how to transit. The usage of SDR by CBs is atm expanding. IMF takes more central role closer to BIS. I try to see what is that about. So please do not misinterpret, I am not a friend of SDR at its present valuation as a pool of currencies.]
OK, this I found interesting:
"...The allocation of the SDR can be shifted from a purely calculation-based system to a system backed by real assets, such as a reserve pool, to further boost market confidence in its value..."
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/english/956/2009/20091229104425550619706/20091229104425550619706_.html
Michal said...Quick pointers:
1. The gold is allocated and is in your private outright ownership (i.e. no 'gold money').
2. It is stored outside of the banking system.
3. The gold is deliverable in any quantity - coins and bars (subject to a fee).
4. Your account is permanently linked to your bank account so literally 'money is for spending, gold is for saving'
etc.
The only difference I see between GBI and BullionVault is that GBI offers allocated coins and bars instead of allocated grams in BV.
My question is - is that such a gamechanger?
mortymer said...The introduction of a New player into a pool of already existing ones (thought a young and improved one) is not a "game changer" - it just forces higher competition into the physical market and is good at the end for public with their different "tastes" and "risk attitude".
The question (of G.Ch.) is how much they will compete with the paper gold market and that is unsure as of yet.
The biggest move IMHO came long time ago unnoticed from international accounting standards, classification, harmonization and the treatment of un/allocated gold and it has been a long process.
So the GBI is rather a consequence of the realized niche in the market not as much a reason.
Jeff said...Gold should only be shipped USPS registered and insured. [Er, that seems to disagree with what you just said.] It is more work for the shipper, but the only secure way to do it.
Michael H said...
Kid Dynamite said...How do you have true allocated storage of any bullion less than a full bar? Ie, yes: bars have numbers that you can put on the statement. Coins do not.
???
-KD
sean said...
JR said...Think of it like "my friend" who understands lots about the SDR, not a "friend of the SDR." I know you are firmly on board with gold as the primary SoV/international reserve.
FOA in bold:
"All these Giants that are holding physical gold and credible paper" are going to win big as escalating gold values displace their dollar asset base."
I think the SDR is "credible paper," or "international paper gold assets."
"Some of then involving the current SDR discussion and how its evolution has changed the face of modern bullion banking. Randy Strauss offered a very good map of how these international paper gold assets came into the world."
Yes paper will burn, but there are a few giants who will get the physical for their gold, like the oil giants holding "credible paper." FOA:
"But, politically, the game was to serve two goals; temporally support the dollar for trade settlement until the Euro was on its feet (sending gold prices down); and inflating the American led gold market until it burst from over issuance. A good chunck of this ties into the SDR issue that I'll get to later."
So the dollar is overvalued because of the paper gold market. So when the paper gold market bursts, the dollar goes down and real physical soars:
"At the right time the Euro Zone will withdraw from the IMF, leaving the US and its factions as the only support for dollar credit assets held overseas. Then the evolution of SDR use our guide knows so well will be complete. This will leave the SDR interpretation open to only one avenue to finding support: it's basket currency function dissolved, gold will have to flow from American based stocks. With most of the present official credit gold leverage built upon IMF protocols, the US will find itself shipping ever higher priced gold to defend an ever lower valuation of dollar exchange rates."
"In all of this; the main story / component is oil supply! We must keep our dollar function, if only in a diminished fashion, in order to buy oil imports."
*********************************
FOFOA:
"Yes, the U.S. will ultimately mobilize its gold in defense of its failing transactional dollar, as I intimated in the post. But that will be at a much higher price of gold relative to "April 2011 constant dollars". So the gold will go a lot further than it would if we mobilized (physically sold) it today. But it will also be during a crash in the dollar relative to real necessities like food and oil. FOA wrote about this…
This will have a lot more to do with the failure of paper gold than paper Treasuries. Treasuries perform by running the printing press. Paper gold performs by delivering physical gold. Try to imagine international claims against the U.S. made up of a "basket" only containing gold and dollars. The dollar is collapsing in value while gold is skyrocketing, and the U.S. has to settle some of these "basket claims" during this dynamic time. Less and less physical gold will combine with more and more dollars to keep the basket even. Can you see the dynamic?"
Cheers, J.R.
d2thdr said...Stasis- Punctuation- Stasis.
I wont trust any third party to keep gold safe.
1 Gold coin in your hand is worth 10 in a custodians safe.
Isn't this how banking eventually started? People kept gold in bank and then they got pieces of paper.
Paper game is well and truly over. To trust another custodian to hold your gold is insanity.
DP said...
Gary said...Those that have taken possession, and have mentioned spreading their storage/safe places...I wonder are you able to give any clues/tips for the sorts of locations you use, without giving away your own locations of course.
I find it annoying that here in the UK, if I want to buy more than £5k of physical, I have to supply my ID and address!!
I also worry about how governments will tax the eventual gains when the gold is eventually sold. I fear THEY will get us one way or another.
About to take the plunge though!
I am a UK-based financial adviser, been talking to my clients about holding physical, even though it earns me nothing...long-term I hope I will have my clients gratitude and continued business.
Thanks FOFOA, I will donate something this week.
mortymer said...http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/the-search-for-a-new-global-monetary-system/article2143016/
R.Mundell :o)
"Nobel economists say euro zone will survive"
MatrixSentry said...Between the 401k and the DC fund, my employer contributes a total of 14% of my compensation compared to my zero. I save in physical gold only. I suspect many are trapped (partially) in paper such as myself, does anyone have any better ideas on how to best protect this money?
mr pinnion said...You can rid yourself of as much cash as you like if your prepared to travel round a few city centre jewellers shops, so i m told. Thats if your ok with circulated gold sovereigns .A bloke in a pub said uk bullion ltd in sheffield is a good place to pick up a few 1oz coins.Theres also a few in London.Shop around.
As for a hideing place,only you can decide that.Try to be origional though.I m going to have to find a new place for mine now FOFOA s mentioned the sock draw(damn you FOFOA!).
And if the Gov. come for your gold,and your as careless as me,you will have lost most of it in an unfortunate boating accident anyway.
Regards
Ozzy
Michael said...Also, I always keep some 'gold' at home in my biggest safe. It is fake and can be found on ebay as 'replica' coins and bars. The coins are convincing. In fact they are such good copies I am considering getting rid of them for fear I'd be accused of counterfeiting. They do not pass the test of appearance or weight but they are enclosed in plastic so the thief would probably not notice in the heat of an armed break in.
The bars weigh 1 OZ but do say, in fine print something like '.0001 ounce gold plated'.
I do this because enough people know I have an interest in gold that some fool might decide to see if I have some. ....they should come prepared to be shot...but fools are fools...
sean said...More seriously, goldmoney has some aspects which I think make it worth considering for storing part of your hoard. For one thing, I don't see the attraction of keeping everything "within easy reach". What if you have to relocate suddenly?? It may not be desirable carrying your life savings with you. Also, I don't think my landlady would like me jackhammering the floor up to install a safe. And I don't own a gun.
I am interested to know what particular concerns people have about goldmoney apart from the fact that it is not "within easy reach". They do hold 100% of the metal owned by customers, and you can hold it in London, Zurich or HK. You can also take delivery of in 100g or 1 kg bars.
mr pinnion said...If a 1 oz coin can buy you a house after freegold, criminals will go to extream lengths to find and steal them. [Yes, but what percent of people are going to have enough money to buy a house in their house?]
I would not recomend storing your gold in a house. Only so many hiding places in a house. As for shooting them?If they ve got any sense they will watch your house and wait till you go out.
Fake gold?I ve thought of that as well so any half intelligent criminal will have.
Remember, we are talking post freegold when lots of people are poor and desperate and with the job situation, probably with lots of time on their hands as well.
Just think, thugs rob drug stores for a few hundred dollars, risking their lives in the process.
If a 1 oz coin will set you up for life and is easy to sell....
No easy answers i m afraid.
Regards
Ozzy
Motley Fool said...Bron made some good point. The only thing I would add is more locations worldwide.
TF
mr pinnion said...
78Rubies said...
Michael said...Yes security is increasingly becoming an issue even now. At some point one just has to accept that after alarm systems and good neighbors and good locks there is only so much one can do. If I do find myself suddenly wealthy because of freegold I'll upgrade as is prudent. It would be ironic if we have to have bodyguards just because we were kooky contrarians at the right time.
Now you have me thinking about a hollowed out volcano and some neatly dressed henchmen....whaaa ha ha ...whaa ha ha
M said..."Because Saudi Arabia is a member of the BIS and marks its currency to the SDR"
a soft peg to the SDR or something ?
M said..."Nobel economists say euro zone will survive"
They tend to get invited to the Bilderberg meetings.
M said...Most domestic energy needs could be fulfilled with the technology we have today, nuclear and natural gas. Industrial and residential power could be supplied with nuclear and cars can run on nat gas. Even bunker fuels that get used up by ocean freighters is a facade. If the US aircraft carrier fleet can run on nuclear, so can every freighter on the ocean. That will be a declining industry anyway, when world trade is settled in a realistic way. Oil demand will eventually decline, even with a rising world population. The oil industry has been getting lucky with big nuclear disasters, because that's the only thing keeping demand for oil up. Natural resource "assets" are over-rated. Japan is one of the biggest economies and creditor nations in the world and she has no natural resources. Its about time reality hit these oil states. They think they are Gods gift to the world. They are still too stupid to do something productive with their oil money. Rather then making capital investments in productive industry like a real economy, they get caught up in the housing bubble and build some useless city in the middle of the desert, on credit. Now Saudi Arabia has plans to build the tallest building in the world, bigger then the one in Dubai. Hopeless fools.....
Robert Mix said...I too mentioned some of the issues you all raise. Geographic diversification is an important issue for me.
And though this may irritate mighty costata, I think it is perfectly OK to have some Ag and Pt as further diversification. I have been open in saying that I THINK that freegold will happen, but I do not KNOW that... I DO agree with FOFOA and costata that the bulk of PMs should be held in GOLD.
I have no real problem with having SOME gold with a GBI or with one of the current private vault services. PARTICULARLY if in another (stable) country).
But, I want the bulk of my precious close at hand and NOT in the hands of others. And by being creative and clever you can probably hide your gold successfully from all predators at home. Or at your office. Or in the desert. Etc.
Michael said...http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/04/gold-money-more-than-meets-eye.html
Wow! Most of the mysterious mutterings of Another are well explained here. I have been reading FOFOA for over 3 months and I have to say that this is the one that gave me the most "ah ha" for the reading minute. I suggest that any 'suggested FOFOA reading list' contain this article. It is probably not the place to start but once you get into trying to comprehend Another, this one does it. It helped to have those 3 months under my belt but I wish I had found it sooner...thanks..
Chico_hawk said...Sites like GoldMoney & BullionVault are ok if you have large enough holdings (50 troy oz's or more) - otherwise, your holdings will get eaten up by storage fees & transaction charges - which will be charged in bullion, not dollars!!!
Also, if you are in Canada, you can hold bullion in a TFSA (or RRSP or regular account) via Questrade & take delivery of it on request.
The bullion is available in 1 oz coins or bars & is held at the Royal Canadian Mint. When I questioned Questrade what happens to my gold if Questrade were to go bankrupt, I was advised that I would still be able to access my gold at the Mint (presumably via a Trustee in Bankruptcy and/or providing evidence to the Mint of my Questrade account & its holdings), though I'm not sure how quick the process of retrieving the gold would be.
The one advantage of a TFSA is that all gains in the account are tax free when withdrawn, unlike RRSP.
Motley Fool said...You will find it is in the list of links on the right hands side. Link number four to be exact. :)
TF
Robert Mix said...Wow, what a great idea, a "suggested FOFOA reading list". FOFOA has cranked out so much good stuff since 2009 when I started reading him it is hard to remember it all.
What's say JR (and/or any others who know Another/FOA/FOFOA's work better than I do)?
I started reading here about Sept. 2009 (just before FOFOA came up with his beautiful Gold Price Probability Distribution Curve, with its peak probability at $55,000) and only read a little bit of his earlier work. Since, I have read a fair amount of FOA. And I have read everything by FOFOA since, although not always understanding everything. LOL.
A FOFOA Reading List, what a great idea.
I nominate "The Shoeshine Boy" as one article.
Mike said...if you take deliviery of your gold via RRSP you will need to pay taxes on it and you will no longer have it in your RRSP just like with any other RRSP instrument you withdrawl. seems kind of pointless to buy gold this way. might as well buy it physically and take deliviery and not through questrade for RRSP.
same with TFSA, whats the point, you will no longer have tfsa as gold when you take deliviery so there is no point on doing it this way.
just buy it outside tfsa and rrsp.
mortymer said...http://anotherfreegoldblog.blogspot.com/2011/08/un-substantive-comments-on-draft.html
It contains two links if you want it without the highlighted parts:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/AEG/papers/m5chapter11.pdf
and
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/SNA2008.pdf
...and as I mentioned this has been a long process, one can follow the proposals etc here:
http://search.un.org/search?as_q=&as_epq=MONETARY+GOLD&as_oq=&as_eq=&ie=utf8&output=xml_no_dtd&client=UN_Website_en&proxystylesheet=UN_Website_en&oe=utf8&as_q=&q=&adv=true&as_occt=any&site=&lr=lang_en&as_qdr=all&as_filetype=&num=10&sort=score&Submit2=Search
mortymer said...Good post, thank you, could you please elaborate on this:
"At the right time the Euro Zone will withdraw from the IMF"?
mortymer said...Among his major contributions are:
Theoretical work on optimum currency areas
Contributions to the development of the euro
Helped start the movement known as supply-side economics
Historical research on the operation of the gold standard in different eras
Predicted the inflation of the 1970s
Mundell-Fleming model
Mundell-Tobin effect
~wiki
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